Sales are slowing. In October the Mesa had only 5 sales vs. 12 last year and 12 in 2019. However,the month that comes in 11th for sales is November, followed by December at #12. So, any idea that the market is slowing should be tempered by the season we are entering. Last year you probably didn’t participate in year-end holidays and this year you probably are. This shifts us away from real estate. Nothing has occurred to alter the trajectory of the market, so January is likely to see a surging number of sales.
Interest rates have ticked up over the 3 percent mark. They are expected to rise to 3.5 percent in about six months. This could act as a slight brake on the current runaway real estate market.
We can use a bit of slowing. Markets that continue to grow above 30 percent tend to end up with a POP – as in a bubble. We need a bit of magic to slowly bring the real estate market back to 5-10 percent appreciation. Without a slowing, the market will probably suffer.
More Questions on SB - 9
I’ve heard people say that you can’t do a SB-9 development in the Coastal Zone. We are likely to see an implementation memorandum from the Coastal Commission, but it seems that SB-9 will apply there.
Some homeowners who live in Homeowner Associations like Hope Ranch, Ennisbrook or Birnam Wood are hoping that their CC&Rs will prevent SB-9, but the Legislature specifically did not create a statement that such existing rules were enforceable.
SB-9 clearly eliminates single-family zoning statewide, and this law can be expected to be amended in the future to further its intent. Passage of multiple bills in recent years to expand ADU laws are an example of how the Legislature can be expected to widen this law once it is established.
Mesa Market Report
I see people write that SB-9 is a “pro-developer’s” bill. Yet SB-9 is only allowed to be used by home owners, and each homeowner must sign and file an affidavit with the county that they will occupy one of the split parcels for at least 3 years. They will be the ones living next door to their lot split. The county can see the date on the affidavit and can prevent an owner from selling until 3 years have passed. I don’t see owners getting too interested in creating projects that will hurt the value of their own homes.
Podcast
More than 700 people have listened to at least one of my Sweet Home Santa Barbara podcasts. Eight episodes have been released and more are coming. The subject of the Podcasts are the dozens of tricks and tips I have developed over the 43 years I have been staging and selling homes in Santa Barbara/Montecito. They show you how to increase the value of your home and ways to enjoy our wonderful community.
You can sign up for the FREE Podcast at ScottWilliams.com, or go to your favorite Podcast App – Apple, Google, Amazon, or see them on YouTube.
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